Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer predicted today that print will be dead in ten years.

There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.

Ballmer is off by at least ten years since at least the first part of this is true today. Whether the final output is screen or paper, there is no significant media left that isn’t “delivered over an IP network”. Print as a fundamental distribution medium is already dead.

Information is produced in whatever format is most convenient to the producer, moved into a digital network (open or closed), and output in whatever format is most useful to the consumer. But the final output is far less important than the intermediate phases of aggregation and distribution which are already entirely digital.

On the other hand, print as an output format is not going to be gone in ten years. Some people prefer print. Some situations make print a better solution. Sometimes print is just fun (candles are still sold, after all). As long as any of those are true, some media will still be delivered to consumers in print.

But all of that information and media will pass through digital networks before delivery. It already does. Companies that are looking for opportunities in the death of print have missed the point that as the fundamental distribution medium, it’s already dead. The change isn’t coming 10 years from now, or five, or even tomorrow. It’s already here.

Newspapers or magazines will continue their decline. Print as a whole will become less common even for output. But the details of that rate of change are incidental to the fundamental change has already taken place. Any company waiting ten years for this has already missed the point.

As you know, here at Postful we’re big on digital/physical integration. ReadWriteWeb has an interesting article on Nota’s offering of what they call C-Shirts. These are shirts with scannable codes allowing anyone to view, edit, and order a copy if they see someone wearing a shirt that they like.

The key to this is the ubiquity of QR (Quick Response) codes in Japan. Nearly all Japanese cell-phones are built to read these. Posters have them as links to more information, ads have them, even vending machines and, now, clothes have them.

In the US, various barcode formats and systems have tried to replicate this. In print, there have been efforts to create both custom readers (CueCat) and proprietary barcode standards.

The alternative has simply been to include a raw url. Lately, print vendors have been pushing PURLs (personal urls), mainly for use in direct mail. But the difference between briefly pointing your phone at an ad and copying down a url for later entry is huge. Looking at the Japanese mobile market, you see the difference that an established, consistent format makes.

But whether through QR, RFID, or some other technology, we can expect to see this trend continue to mature in Japan and expand elsewhere. In print (whether on paper or on clothing) the capability is already here. For other physical products, it won’t be long. For all of us, it will be another step to bringing together our physical and digital spaces.

The general push at CES combined with Apple’s introduction of the MacBook Air has moved cloud computing back into the spotlight. Steve Rubel points out:

As we become more dependent on technology, people crave small and thin computers and mobile devices. They want to travel light, yet still remain as productive as they can at home or work with a desktop. This will require that manufacturers rely more on “the cloud” (e.g. the Internet) and local area networks, rather than on-board hardware to do more of the work - at least for now.

What’s true for the internals of computers and devices is doubly so for the hardware with which we surround them. Very few people want to carry a printer with them on the go. In fact, few even want one at all.

Postful takes the printer off your desktop and moves it into the cloud. Regardless of what device you’re working from, what files are on that local machine, or even where you are, you have access to a high-end printing and delivery service.

As we increasingly treat the network as the foundation of our computing experience, hardware and physical processes must become an integral part of the cloud. Those tools can no longer be represented by physical devices that are tied to our presence in a particular location. They have to be accessible, integrated, and connected.

Our focus at Postful has been on bringing printing into this world of services. This is just one piece of the puzzle, but we think it demonstrates the potential, viability, and even necessity of this strategy.

Alternate Outputs

January 18, 2008

Chris Anderson has been compiling a growing list of media business models. Included is “Alternate output (pdf; print/print-on-demand; customized Shared Book style; etc.)”.

Obviously this model is near and dear to our hearts [does that phrase refer to the lungs?]. Postful makes it easy for sites to add in a print and delivery system for their online content.

But it’s not just about providing a monetization mechanism, it’s about expanding your audience. There are still billions of people worldwide who aren’t online much or at all (including over 100 million people in the US alone). Providing a mechanism for reaching those people is not just a way to earn an extra buck, it’s a way to establish your brand for the next wave of internet expansion.

More, it’s a way to allow your users to interact with your content as they prefer. The expansion of choice is one of the fundamental strands in the modern web. It’s becoming one of the minimal standards to be considered credible and useful (the convergence of those terms in an information economy is perhaps a topic for another post).

Keep letting us know how you’re using us to better serve your patrons (and earn money for yourself in the process)!

As HP continues their $300 million dollar advertising effort for Print 2.0, it’s interesting to take a look at what their approach entails. VJ Joshi gave the clearest expression of their vision during a presentation the Web 2.0 conference. In that, he made it clear that their “foundation is supplies”, mostly ink for personal printers.

While HP is taking tentative steps towards the concept of Print as a Service, their focus remains squarely on personal printers and how to increase the volume there. While they hedge their bets with purchases such as Snapfish, their priorities are clear. Which is probably as it should be for a company with an established $26 billion/year business in that area.

But the future isn’t for each consumer to run their own mini print shop (the current home print model). The future is for print to exist as a pure service. Need to mail a letter? Click and it’s printed, stuffed, stamped, and in the mail stream. Oh, and it’s printed at a higher quality than any home printer out there.

As we become more mobile, more networked, and more variable in our needs, maintaining personal manufacturing capability (even light manufacturing like print) makes less sense. Certainly some people will want to do their own printing, but they will rapidly become a minority.

At Postful, our approach is to build towards this rapidly accelerating transition. By moving print directly into the service cloud, we’re treating it as just another output format for the web. Information can be delivered on web pages, sms, voice, or print. The medium is no longer the message.

Of course this is not an absolute issue. There will continue to be a market for personal printers just as there continues to be a market for home woodworking shops. But, given current trends, the shift is definitively away from that model.

There’s a lot of talk going on right now about whether web firms are innovating or just… bubbling. While the core may be going through a (necessary) consolidation phase, there are vital new spaces around it composed of companies that are just as much built on the web, but expanding outward from there rather than turning inward.

The variety here is impressive. Location based technologies, robotic integration, networked medical devices, and many others are all seeing explosive innovation as technology catches up with the visions.

The new area of manufacturing as a service (MaaS) is already gaining traction. The integration of networked processing, personalization, and physical production opens up entirely new possibilities in physical goods.

For ouroboros web firms, innovation may be drying up. For those looking outward, the possibilities are almost overwhelming as we work to bring the best of the web to the 99% of the world that isn’t contained within a browser window.

‘Software as a Service’ (SaaS) is well established. ‘Hardware as a Service’ (HaaS) is joining it as a basic pattern, particularly in light of Amazon’s efforts. In the spirit of XaaS, we think that the next key piece of this is ‘Manufacturing as a Service’ (MaaS).

What is MaaS?

The current picture of manufacturing is tied to mass production. But new equipment and techniques are transforming the underlying assumptions. Light manufacturing tasks such as printing are experiencing the first wave of this.

It is now possible to complete and deliver personalized runs of one as easily as we previously produced runs of millions. This opens up the possibility of bringing these manufacturing tasks into the cloud of modern services. Production can be initiated from anywhere, with completely unique specifications, as easily as any other web service call is made.

As the final step is taken and these processes are exposed as services, any actor attached to the network can produce physical products on demand. More, these products can be customized to almost limitless specifications.

Transaction costs are dramatically reduced. Whereas those costs previously mandated centralization and commodification of products, forms, and delivery, true personalization is about to reach the world of manufacturing.

Impacts of Personal Production

Personalized production ranges from simple items (kitchen tools with grips sized to your hand) to complex (automobiles structured both for your body and optimized structurally for your intended use). Products can exist to meet the needs of small groups or even individual users rather than being ignored unless they have markets of millions.

Under these conditions, waste can be dramatically reduced. Manufacturers can eliminate overproduction and wasted or unsold runs. For consumers, products will be built to their specifications, removing the churn of inadequate goods.

For both, this will allow for faster transitions to new products and a far wider spectrum of available options. The tooling and training cycles which still define product time lines and delivery challenges can be eliminated.

Consumers will experience a level of satisfaction and ‘fit’ presently only available in the highest end personal services. It’s the fusion of the kind of customization possible with hand-crafted goods and the scale and consistency of mass production. And, as much as mass production opened a new era of cheap, consistent quality, but bland goods, so the era of personal production will open new standards of personalization, relevance, and impact while maintaining the advantages of the old system.

Early Results in Print

In print we’re already experiencing the first wave of this. The last five years have seen the introduction of digital presses and dynamic finishing equipment which make possible these new processes. For any area of manufacturing, the tools must come first.

While various firms have been transitioning traditional print shop activities to web based storefronts, a new wave of firms are taking the next step and exposing the underlying process through print APIs, integration with existing tools and services, and completely individual production.

The benefits are already clear. Manufacturing and consumer waste are dropping as organizations print letterhead dynamically (directly with documents as needed), marketing brochures when requested, and production consolidates eliminating the need for millions of underutilized printers. Both business and consumer users experience vastly better quality and service while manufacturers are able to better scale their production and respond to shifts in demand.

Entirely new uses are appearing as the potential of the systems become clear. Print, widely considered a dying industry, is finding a place for itself for at least the coming decades. As will likely be the case for many areas of manufacturing, the overall market is smaller, but of greater utility and value.

The transition is, of course, not a clean one. Thousands of print shops are going out of business each year as the industry transforms. It’s a type of challenge and promise which we can expect to see repeated in many industries.

Conclusion

The modern service cloud ushers in a fundamental shift in our accounting of economic costs. The endemic overhead in even the most basic of deals and transactions is perhaps the key factor in determining the structure of our economic systems at all scales. The service cloud can reduce those transaction costs to negligible levels.

Information processing, manufacturing, even traditional services will be a part of this (’Service as a Service’ or SaaS_1 (being forced into subscripting acronyms is always a sign that a theory is on the right track)). While the frictionless economy is likely to always remain an unreachable ideal, we are at least decreasing these costs by orders of magnitude.

The implications of this extend beyond the products of these transactions and into the very structure of our organizations. Centralized decision making and classic organizational hierarchies are counter-productive when transaction and information costs decrease past a certain point. As the issues which defined the nature of the firm unravel, we enter into a period of organizational transformation. It promises to be interesting at least.

Web applications and services build value based on the networks they integrate. By producing links and automating connections, they can improve communication, offer new ways of working, and vastly decrease transaction costs.

However, the value of these networks often depends on all key members being willing to use the service. Any one key individual not using the service can eliminate the value of the whole process. Often it becomes easier to just stick to the old methods rather than have a hybrid with some using a system and some not.

Many services have failed due to a small group of hold-outs. We’ve seen this in areas ranging from real estate to CRM to manufacturing. Metcalf’s Law fails to take into account the negative effect of key gaps on processes within the network.

The question is how to connect these legacy workers? The route generally tried is to convince them to change their habits. But what if we focused instead on making it easy to connect their old habits with modern systems? Printed mail is one piece that could serve as this bridge. Whether it’s document delivery, linking in offline workers, or providing hard copies for legal purposes, print is able to serve as a conduit.

In many cases this would not be as efficient as if everyone just got online. But it is far better than the status quo. For web services it offers the ability to jump ahead of the technology adoption curve and establish themselves. For the next decade or two, there will continue to be key gaps in our digital networks. We can either fail in the face of them or learn to incorporate them through alternate means.

Logs in the river

When dealing with print and paper, you have to consider the environmental impact. It was one of the earliest issues we looked at and one that we continue to examine as we expand.

Pure green tech is an exciting and important area. But it has to be combined with progress in legacy industries. We’ve focused on doing this with print, starting with basic improvements to the status quo and following up with consistent further steps.

Paper is the most obvious piece of this. With modern high-quality options, the decision to use recycled paper was easy. Our current stock is composed of 50% post-consumer waste.

We use inks and printing processes that are non-toxic and designed to limit solid waste.

But the largest impact was unexpected, a reduction in the need for personal printers. Many are purchased for the rare need to send a hard-copy. We can eliminate most of those situations.

Electronics manufacturing is both energy and resources intensive. Both printers and supplies include hazardous materials which are seldom disposed of safely. Every printer that we eliminate is both a global and a personal benefit to our users.

Overall, the key is to offer services that align the interests of users, company, and world as a whole. The more efficient and renewable our process becomes, the better the service we can offer, the less expensive it is for us, and the better for the environment. When you work from the start to align those interests, it makes it very easy to do the right thing.

photo by LHOON

Gaps in the Social Network

October 10, 2007

Given the near-daily news of social networks creating a new internet revolution, curing cancer, and serving man (run!), it was long-past time for Postful to join in.

Social networks have the potential to create new and flexible social bonds, for those within the network. But the digital divide remains real and leaves most of the world excluded.

Many of key connectors of our real social networks are not using computers. In my family (and many others), it’s the generation that isn’t online that most closely ties us all together. It’s precisely as these digital networks become more important to our social interactions that it becomes critical that we maintain those connections and what they represent.

Obviously (from our perspective), incorporating mail into the process opens up some interesting opportunities to bridge this divide. Printed mail offers a way to connect to anyone, regardless of their technological status.

Certainly for social networks focused on family and genealogy, this is essential (and potentially a defining feature). Imagine making it easy to set up mail newsletters which summarize family news for non-computer users or sending out copies of family-trees to get feedback from those who know the history best. Think of the potential reach of the network that gets this right.

More importantly, unless we make the effort, we are at risk of losing some key pieces of all of our ’social graphs’ and, with them, an important part of our real connections. With new tools, we have an chance to connect billions using formats with which they’re comfortable and that they want to use. We can finally start to fill in the social graph and add one more way for our tools to connect rather than divide.