Print Scales Up
August 29, 2008
While I’m sad to say that this isn’t one of the new features we will be announcing next week, it’s still a cool extension of print concepts.
Expanding 3D printing technologies (often used for rapid prototyping) from plastics to concrete, a USC group in conjunction with Caterpillar is testing a system to ‘print’ homes. Once available, it should be able to print out a full house in hours.
The Other Half of Mail
July 24, 2008
Being able to send letters from your computer is great. But you still have to go down to your mailbox and pick up your incoming mail. Thankfully, there are several services willing to take care of that for you.
Earth Class Mail allows you to set up a mailing address at one of their facilities and direct your incoming mail there. They scan the mail and provide it to you online. If you need the actual letter, they handle forwarding that on to you. It really seems that this is something the USPS should do (and working with national postal systems is part of Earth Class Mail’s model).
Pixily is a new entrant. Rather than automatically handling your mail, they have you collect your documents and then re-mail them to their center. If you still want to receive your mail directly but would like to have someone else handle document scanning (for bills or other pieces you want saved), this is a great option. There are similar services like Shoeboxed which focus on receipts (as I glance nervously at the wad on receipts on the floor next to me).
Paper documents and mail still have a place, but for many of us, that place should be far away from our desks and offices. Postful lets you handle the outgoing side. These services let you handle the incoming. It’s a combination which allows you to stay connected across all formats while working in the way that’s best for you.
Ballmer’s Wrong, Print is Already Dead
June 6, 2008
Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer predicted today that print will be dead in ten years.
There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.
Ballmer is off by at least ten years since at least the first part of this is true today. Whether the final output is screen or paper, there is no significant media left that isn’t “delivered over an IP network”. Print as a fundamental distribution medium is already dead.
Information is produced in whatever format is most convenient to the producer, moved into a digital network (open or closed), and output in whatever format is most useful to the consumer. But the final output is far less important than the intermediate phases of aggregation and distribution which are already entirely digital.
On the other hand, print as an output format is not going to be gone in ten years. Some people prefer print. Some situations make print a better solution. Sometimes print is just fun (candles are still sold, after all). As long as any of those are true, some media will still be delivered to consumers in print.
But all of that information and media will pass through digital networks before delivery. It already does. Companies that are looking for opportunities in the death of print have missed the point that as the fundamental distribution medium, it’s already dead. The change isn’t coming 10 years from now, or five, or even tomorrow. It’s already here.
Newspapers or magazines will continue their decline. Print as a whole will become less common even for output. But the details of that rate of change are incidental to the fundamental change has already taken place. Any company waiting ten years for this has already missed the point.
Web Integrated… Shirts?
June 4, 2008
As you know, here at Postful we’re big on digital/physical integration. ReadWriteWeb has an interesting article on Nota’s offering of what they call C-Shirts. These are shirts with scannable codes allowing anyone to view, edit, and order a copy if they see someone wearing a shirt that they like.
The key to this is the ubiquity of QR (Quick Response) codes in Japan. Nearly all Japanese cell-phones are built to read these. Posters have them as links to more information, ads have them, even vending machines and, now, clothes have them.
In the US, various barcode formats and systems have tried to replicate this. In print, there have been efforts to create both custom readers (CueCat) and proprietary barcode standards.
The alternative has simply been to include a raw url. Lately, print vendors have been pushing PURLs (personal urls), mainly for use in direct mail. But the difference between briefly pointing your phone at an ad and copying down a url for later entry is huge. Looking at the Japanese mobile market, you see the difference that an established, consistent format makes.
But whether through QR, RFID, or some other technology, we can expect to see this trend continue to mature in Japan and expand elsewhere. In print (whether on paper or on clothing) the capability is already here. For other physical products, it won’t be long. For all of us, it will be another step to bringing together our physical and digital spaces.
Digital Print is 1/3 of the Way There
May 31, 2008
Digital print technology is rapidly maturing. While drupa continues to demonstrate the huge range of existing print methods and technologies (and cool new ones), calling this the digital drupa is not an exaggeration.
Which makes it important to look at the three pieces needed for this transition to truly take hold.
- Digital presses and finishing equipment
- Software and processing
- Integration with digital information and sources
While the first (presses and equipment) is maturing, the other two have a long ways to go.
Read the rest of this entry »
Print Market Size
May 30, 2008
We’re still occasionally asked why get into print. Isn’t it a dead market?
Right now drupa is taking place (the world’s largest print conference, held once every four years). We’ll be talking more about some of the very cool innovations on display there later. But for now, let me just pass along one number provided by our friends at HP. They estimate that, in 2010, the value of printed pages in the global graphic arts market will be $663 billion.
Now, even if you think (as we do) that the total print market is destined to decline, the portion of the total originated through the web continues to grow at triple digit rates. With a total market of that size, a decline is simply an opportunity for firms ready to take advantage of the transformation.
Print Vendor and Supplier Consolidation
January 23, 2008
While the total print market is still growing, the number of print shops continues to fall. Quebecor World is the first major player to collapse, but this is affecting all firms, from local shops to international giants.
It was inevitable that, in this climate, print hardware and software providers would need to consolidate as well. There simply aren’t enough purchasers to support an ecosystem of this size and complexity. HP’s purchase of Exstream Software is the latest step in this process.
This follows a series of related moves over recent years. Most similar is Xerox’s acquisition of XMPie in 2006. Owning their own VDP software suites allows major print and digital press vendors to offer a turn-key solution, rather than just a piece of hardware.
As complexity rises and the number of big buyers declines, this is critical. There simply aren’t the resources available to customize each installation. The short-term implementation costs and long-term support costs make this unworkable for all but the largest players (who don’t buy enough to make it work for the vendors).
Craig Le Clair has pointed out that document output management is becoming an increasingly major software category. I think that the ability to combine software and hardware into a single solution for clients is the real solution for this space. HP’s purchase makes particular sense in that context.
Of course, this leaves the huge segment of the market that can’t spend a million dollars or more on internal print capacity (or simply don’t want to). This is the area where Postful and other web-to-print vendors are rapidly expanding. The ability to standardize on a digital workflow and simply plug in print as one output option is a huge advantage for businesses.
These two trends will be highlighted over the next few years. The largest firms will increasingly rely on drop-in hardware and software solutions provided by single vendors. Meanwhile small and medium sized firms will handle their print needs through internet-based fulfillment services. Whether managed through internal or external appliances, print will be a service.
Hardware for Cloud Computing
January 21, 2008
The general push at CES combined with Apple’s introduction of the MacBook Air has moved cloud computing back into the spotlight. Steve Rubel points out:
As we become more dependent on technology, people crave small and thin computers and mobile devices. They want to travel light, yet still remain as productive as they can at home or work with a desktop. This will require that manufacturers rely more on “the cloud” (e.g. the Internet) and local area networks, rather than on-board hardware to do more of the work - at least for now.
What’s true for the internals of computers and devices is doubly so for the hardware with which we surround them. Very few people want to carry a printer with them on the go. In fact, few even want one at all.
Postful takes the printer off your desktop and moves it into the cloud. Regardless of what device you’re working from, what files are on that local machine, or even where you are, you have access to a high-end printing and delivery service.
As we increasingly treat the network as the foundation of our computing experience, hardware and physical processes must become an integral part of the cloud. Those tools can no longer be represented by physical devices that are tied to our presence in a particular location. They have to be accessible, integrated, and connected.
Our focus at Postful has been on bringing printing into this world of services. This is just one piece of the puzzle, but we think it demonstrates the potential, viability, and even necessity of this strategy.
Postful and HP: Competing Visions for Print
November 7, 2007
As HP continues their $300 million dollar advertising effort for Print 2.0, it’s interesting to take a look at what their approach entails. VJ Joshi gave the clearest expression of their vision during a presentation the Web 2.0 conference. In that, he made it clear that their “foundation is supplies”, mostly ink for personal printers.
While HP is taking tentative steps towards the concept of Print as a Service, their focus remains squarely on personal printers and how to increase the volume there. While they hedge their bets with purchases such as Snapfish, their priorities are clear. Which is probably as it should be for a company with an established $26 billion/year business in that area.
But the future isn’t for each consumer to run their own mini print shop (the current home print model). The future is for print to exist as a pure service. Need to mail a letter? Click and it’s printed, stuffed, stamped, and in the mail stream. Oh, and it’s printed at a higher quality than any home printer out there.
As we become more mobile, more networked, and more variable in our needs, maintaining personal manufacturing capability (even light manufacturing like print) makes less sense. Certainly some people will want to do their own printing, but they will rapidly become a minority.
At Postful, our approach is to build towards this rapidly accelerating transition. By moving print directly into the service cloud, we’re treating it as just another output format for the web. Information can be delivered on web pages, sms, voice, or print. The medium is no longer the message.
Of course this is not an absolute issue. There will continue to be a market for personal printers just as there continues to be a market for home woodworking shops. But, given current trends, the shift is definitively away from that model.
Manufacturing as a Service (MaaS)
October 29, 2007
‘Software as a Service’ (SaaS) is well established. ‘Hardware as a Service’ (HaaS) is joining it as a basic pattern, particularly in light of Amazon’s efforts. In the spirit of XaaS, we think that the next key piece of this is ‘Manufacturing as a Service’ (MaaS).
What is MaaS?
The current picture of manufacturing is tied to mass production. But new equipment and techniques are transforming the underlying assumptions. Light manufacturing tasks such as printing are experiencing the first wave of this.
It is now possible to complete and deliver personalized runs of one as easily as we previously produced runs of millions. This opens up the possibility of bringing these manufacturing tasks into the cloud of modern services. Production can be initiated from anywhere, with completely unique specifications, as easily as any other web service call is made.
As the final step is taken and these processes are exposed as services, any actor attached to the network can produce physical products on demand. More, these products can be customized to almost limitless specifications.
Transaction costs are dramatically reduced. Whereas those costs previously mandated centralization and commodification of products, forms, and delivery, true personalization is about to reach the world of manufacturing.
Impacts of Personal Production
Personalized production ranges from simple items (kitchen tools with grips sized to your hand) to complex (automobiles structured both for your body and optimized structurally for your intended use). Products can exist to meet the needs of small groups or even individual users rather than being ignored unless they have markets of millions.
Under these conditions, waste can be dramatically reduced. Manufacturers can eliminate overproduction and wasted or unsold runs. For consumers, products will be built to their specifications, removing the churn of inadequate goods.
For both, this will allow for faster transitions to new products and a far wider spectrum of available options. The tooling and training cycles which still define product time lines and delivery challenges can be eliminated.
Consumers will experience a level of satisfaction and ‘fit’ presently only available in the highest end personal services. It’s the fusion of the kind of customization possible with hand-crafted goods and the scale and consistency of mass production. And, as much as mass production opened a new era of cheap, consistent quality, but bland goods, so the era of personal production will open new standards of personalization, relevance, and impact while maintaining the advantages of the old system.
Early Results in Print
In print we’re already experiencing the first wave of this. The last five years have seen the introduction of digital presses and dynamic finishing equipment which make possible these new processes. For any area of manufacturing, the tools must come first.
While various firms have been transitioning traditional print shop activities to web based storefronts, a new wave of firms are taking the next step and exposing the underlying process through print APIs, integration with existing tools and services, and completely individual production.
The benefits are already clear. Manufacturing and consumer waste are dropping as organizations print letterhead dynamically (directly with documents as needed), marketing brochures when requested, and production consolidates eliminating the need for millions of underutilized printers. Both business and consumer users experience vastly better quality and service while manufacturers are able to better scale their production and respond to shifts in demand.
Entirely new uses are appearing as the potential of the systems become clear. Print, widely considered a dying industry, is finding a place for itself for at least the coming decades. As will likely be the case for many areas of manufacturing, the overall market is smaller, but of greater utility and value.
The transition is, of course, not a clean one. Thousands of print shops are going out of business each year as the industry transforms. It’s a type of challenge and promise which we can expect to see repeated in many industries.
Conclusion
The modern service cloud ushers in a fundamental shift in our accounting of economic costs. The endemic overhead in even the most basic of deals and transactions is perhaps the key factor in determining the structure of our economic systems at all scales. The service cloud can reduce those transaction costs to negligible levels.
Information processing, manufacturing, even traditional services will be a part of this (’Service as a Service’ or SaaS_1 (being forced into subscripting acronyms is always a sign that a theory is on the right track)). While the frictionless economy is likely to always remain an unreachable ideal, we are at least decreasing these costs by orders of magnitude.
The implications of this extend beyond the products of these transactions and into the very structure of our organizations. Centralized decision making and classic organizational hierarchies are counter-productive when transaction and information costs decrease past a certain point. As the issues which defined the nature of the firm unravel, we enter into a period of organizational transformation. It promises to be interesting at least.
